A plain-English tracker of the AI revolution, and what it means for owner-led businesses.
Every two weeks we check twelve areas of AI against dated sources, then say what changed and whether our three horizons still hold. No hype, no doom. Just where things actually stand.
Last updated November 8, 2026
One place to see how fast AI is really moving
Headlines swing between "AI changes everything" and "AI is a bubble." Owners need something steadier to plan around. Where We Stand is that: a running scorecard with sources, a timeline we update only when the evidence moves, and a short note on what each change means for a small business.
The Scorecard
Twelve areas, each with a status and the number behind it.
The Timeline
Three horizons from now to 2035, plus a dated log of the signals that test them.
The Owner Takeaway
What the latest changes mean for hiring, data, tools and customer trust in your business.
Where things stand right now
The AI revolution is real and moving fast in capability, cost and spending. Its effect on jobs so far is narrow but clear: fewer young people are being hired into AI-exposed roles, not mass layoffs. The money side is starting to wobble, with record spending while revenue growth slows.
Twelve areas, checked every two weeks
For each area: what we watch, where it stands today, and the number behind it.
Capability
Top model benchmarks and how long AI agents can work on a task alone.
Accelerating
Three labs within about one point at the top. Agents now finish multi-hour tasks.
Cost of intelligence
What the same quality of AI output costs over time.
Falling fast
Quality-adjusted AI prices are dropping about 40% a year.
Compute, capital and energy
Data center spending, chips and the power grid behind them.
Record spend, strain showing
The big four spent $208.7B in Q3, up 84%.
AI company economics
Revenue, growth and valuations of the companies building AI.
Growth slowing
Revenue growth is cooling and valuations are being repriced.
Adoption
How many businesses use AI, and how many get a real return.
Broad but shallow
98% of firms have AI projects; only 28% see strong returns.
Jobs and labor
Hiring, layoffs and unemployment in AI-exposed work.
Entry-level freeze
Fewer junior hires, not mass layoffs. Unemployment is 4.1%.
Productivity
Output per hour in the economy and inside firms.
First real signs
Q3 productivity rose at a 3.6% annual rate.
Physical AI
Robotaxis, warehouse robots and humanoids.
Robotaxis scaling
Humanoid robots are still in the thousands of units.
Science and health
AI results in drug discovery, medicine and research.
Real results
Drug discovery is producing real, published results.
Policy and regulation
Federal, state and international AI rules.
States set the rules
Federal preemption now looks unlikely.
Safety and security
AI misuse, agent failures and security incidents.
Rising
Agents are now behaving badly in live tests.
Public trust
How people feel about AI versus how much they use it.
Falling
Trust is falling while use keeps rising.
The timeline we test every update
A horizon only moves when the evidence does. This update, none moved.
Cognitive labor displacement
Confirmed
Showing up as missing entry-level hires, not layoffs.
Physical and logistics automation
On track
Robotaxis and warehouse robots are commercial. General-purpose humanoids are not.
Reconstruction
Unchanged
No evidence yet that new job categories are scaling.
Who feels it first, now to 2030
The firms under the most pressure sell expertise by the hour, with juniors doing much of the work. We score each industry on how much of the work AI can already do, how exposed the pricing model is, and how much change shows up in the data. First edition, November 2026.
High
Small consultancies, coaches, trainers
Entry-level consulting is shrinking at the top of the market, and the method is mostly knowledge work.
High
Bookkeeping, tax prep, small CPA firms
Data entry, categorizing and matching are exactly what AI automates first.
High
Marketing and creative agencies
Clients can now do much of the work in-house with AI tools.
Elevated
Small law firms
Intake, document prep and paralegal work. Heavy AI use already; regulation slows the change.
Elevated
Insurance agencies, benefits brokers, HR consultants
Rule-heavy paperwork that AI handles well.
Elevated
Recruiting and staffing firms
AI is taking over search and screening.
Watch
Financial advisors, IT providers, engineering and drafting shops
Real exposure, but slower or more regulated.
The rules we hold ourselves to
Every number has a dated source
We go to the original filing, dataset or agency report whenever we can, such as BLS, Census, the Fed, company filings and peer-reviewed research.
Secondhand numbers are labeled
When a figure comes from news coverage or a tracker instead of the original source, we mark it "Reported" so you can weigh it.
Updated every two weeks
A fresh check of all twelve areas twice a month, and sooner if a signal lands that could move a horizon.
Written for owners, not engineers
Every update ends with what it means for revenue, margin, hiring and risk in a small business.
Want to know what this means for your business?
Where We Stand shows the big picture. The free AI Leverage Report shows where AI is most likely to pay off in your business first.